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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest upset.

However the latest competition is profoundly different. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans rising together. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a typical year!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still