🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Made $Nearly Half a Million from Bets on the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor earned a substantial sum on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro shortly prior to it was made public, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of the event. Sudden Shift in Wagers Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be removed from office by the end of January surged in the period preceding President Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that the president had been seized. A single trader, which joined the platform in December and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, earned over $436K from a initial bet of over $32,000. It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Trading information shows that users assessed the probability of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the prior Friday. Yet the market's assessment had climbed to 11% by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the first hours of January 3rd, suggesting a sharp shift in positions right before the social media post was made. "That trade has all the signs of a bet based on inside information," commented a financial reform advocate. A small number of other platform users also made tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Political Attention Grows Elected officials are starting to take note. A bill put forward on Monday aims to prohibit government employees from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a bet. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the past few years, with participants able to predict everything from sports to current affairs. This sector encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. However it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency. Insider trading is a crime in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the forecasting space. A company executive for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."